温州教育影院-温州市教育局-可汗学院：概率-0054.人寿保险与死亡概率

0054.人寿保险与死亡概率 0.0（0人评）
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00:00:00

Life Insurance Motivation

The speaker explains their motivation for considering life insurance, particularly to protect their family financially in case of their death. They mention having a mortgage and young children, with one on the way, and wanting to ensure their family can pay off the mortgage and save for college.
00:00:19

Term Life Policy Consideration

The speaker discusses their interest in a term life policy, specifically a $1 million policy over 20 years. They explain that this type of policy fits their needs because they only want coverage for the next two decades, during which time they hope to pay off their mortgage and build savings.
00:00:40

Comparison with Whole Life Policy

The speaker compares term life insurance with whole life insurance. They note that while whole life provides lifelong coverage with a guaranteed payout, it is more expensive than term life, which they find more suitable given their current priorities and financial goals.
00:01:12

Premiums and Probability Analysis

The speaker begins analyzing the probability of their death over the next 20 years based on the quoted premiums. They calculate the total amount paid in premiums over the 20-year period and how this relates to the insurer's risk and potential profit margin.
00:02:18

Back-of-the-Envelope Risk Estimation

The speaker uses a hypothetical scenario involving 100 similar policyholders to estimate the insurer’s break-even point. They conclude that the insurer likely believes the probability of their death within 20 years is very low—perhaps around 1 in 100 or even lower—to justify offering the policy at the quoted price.